Lewis and Tua tangle for heavyweight title Saturday in Las Vegas

It's surprising to me how many "boxing experts" as well as casual fans are picking David Tua to beat Lennox Lewis Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Sorry folks, it ain't gonna happen!

Other than having similar records - Tua is 37-1 with 32 KOs and Lewis is 37-1-1 with 29 KOs - there is nothing else the two have in common.

Lewis has fought the tougher opponents, faced the "big fight" atmosphere before and appears to be in his prime even though he is 34 years old. Lewis really hasn't been in any fights where he was beaten up and is a young 34 so don't count age against him.

Tua at 29 is slightly younger but hasn't fought anywhere near the caliber of fighter Lewis has and even his record is deceiving. Tua has looked terrible in a couple of his recent fights and was well on his way to losing to Hasim Rahman last year when he floored Rahman with an after-the-bell punch that ended round nine of their fight. Unfortunately for Hasim, the referee didn't call a foul and give Hasim a chance to recover - the TV replays clearly showed it was a late and illegal blow that downed Rahman - and when a shaky Rahman came out for round 10 he hadn't recovered and after taking a bunch of punches from Tua, the ref stepped in and stopped it.

I've never been impressed by Tua, even in victory, and he's not been tested in battle like Lewis has.

Remember when Tua fought at Caesars Tahoe a couple of summers ago. He fought someone named Gary Bell, who was being touted as a "top heavyweight" with a flashy record but the bum couldn't fight and Tua disposed of him in the very first round. Tua has fought a few more foes like that on his record and those kind of fights won't get you ready to fight a Lennox Lewis.

By the way, has anyone ever hear of Bell again?

Also, let's not forget the physical advantages Lewis will have over the shorter - by six inches - and stocky Tua. Lewis has a huge reach advantage, knows how to use it and with his long left jab Lewis figures to keep Tua at bay until Lewis opens up and knocks him out!

Lewis will also have a weight advantage over Tua who may be a bit blown-up, weight-wise, for this fight. I expect Tua to weigh around 235-240 (anything over and he's really in trouble) while Lewis should weigh in the 250 area.

Official prediction - Lewis is a 3-1 favorite and that seems like a fair price. Tua, barring anything unforeseen like a head butt cut or something crazy happening like Oliver McCall crying in the ring when he fought Lewis up at the lake, only a lucky punch by Tua can get him the win.

On the other hand, Lewis can easily stay away and outbox Tua, which will make for a boring fight, or he can peck away and wear Tua down to stop him late or get lucky and have Tua freeze in his first big fight like Andrew Golota did against Lewis, and win by an early knockout.

My pick is Lewis by TKO in round seven .... Bet on it!

-- The fight is available locally on pay-per-view TV and if things shake out as they normally do, HBO will have it on the air the following week and/or weekend.

-- While on the subject, the Mike Tyson PPV fight against Golota in October drew the lowest amount of "buys" ever for a Tyson fight. Only about 300,000 people bothered to order the farce and that's less than half the number that previously had ordered a Tyson fight ... That's good news, sports fans!

-- Saw the Sugar Shane Mosley fight against Antonio Diaz Saturday night on HBO from Madison Square Garden and Mosley, who won in round six, looked good when he turned it on to end the fight but Mosley really seemed uninterested and was just "getting some rounds in" before disposing of a tough but overmatched Diaz.

Mosley (36-0,33 KOs), easily defended his world welterweight title by knocking down Diaz (33-3, 22 KOs) in round two and then doing it twice in round six before the referee officially called it off at the 1:36 mark of that round. A good call as there was no point in continuing it at that juncture of the fight.

Quick Trivia - Who is the only boxing referee to have worked world title fights that involved all three "Sugars" who are, Sugar Ray Robinson, Sugar Ray Leonard and Sugar Shane Mosley?

I'll give you the answer after noting that the live HBO telecast opened with a boring fight that saw undefeated Hector Camacho Jr., improve to 30-0 by winning a unanimous 10-round decision over late sub Joe Hutchinson in a junior welterweight fight.

Camacho didn't look very impressive but he's only 22-years old and will improve as he matures and learns how to take an inferior foe out before the judges can screw up a decision ... They didn't this time but it was New York so why take the chance they might?

-- Arthur Mercante Sr., at the ripe old age of 80 - he looked good and moved around the ring like a younger man - is the referee who worked all those "Sugar" fights and he was the referee in the Mosley fight Saturday night.

-- The live Friday night ESPN2 fight main event saw James "Lights Out" Toney take out 34-year old late sub Courtney Butler in round three of their cruiserweight 10-rounder.

Toney knocked Butler down in round three and when he got up the referee asked Butler if he wanted to continue and he said "no" and quit.

I just wonder. Is Butler a stable mate of Golota?

Alan Rogers is the Nevada Appeal boxing writer.