Recent history suggests that when teams are one victory away from reaching the Super Bowl, it really doesn't make a difference where they're playing. In the Conference Championships, home teams have won only eight games in the last nine years. The last time both home teams advanced was 1996. Handicappers who follow trends will be expecting at least one road upset on Sunday.
New Orleans at Chicago - New Orleans is America's team. Last season in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the homeless Saints traveled all over the country living out of hotels, and as should be expected, finished with a dismal 3-13 record. This season has been just the opposite, having a home with great fans, and making it to the NFC Championship game for the very first time.
On the field the success is mainly due to the Saints' versatile offense, which marched its way to No. 1 in the NFL. Quarterback Drew Brees led the league in passing yards and quarterback rating, which earned him a second-place finish in league MVP voting. The running game isn't too shabby either, as everyone saw last week when it gained 208 yards in a 27-24 win against Philadelphia.
The most pressure will be on Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman, who was raked over the coals by the media then booed by his own home fans before last week's game. Head coach Lovie Smith has shown an incredible amount of patience with Grossman, and they were rewarded with a 27-24 overtime playoff victory over Seattle.
New Orleans is 7-1 against the point spread on the road, and 5-1 as a road underdog. The Saints have scored 30 or more points in their last five road games.
Chicago's last five home games included two losses and two overtime victories, with Oct. 29 being the last time the Bears covered a point spread as the host. Their defense has given up an average of 26 points over the last five games, and their one home game that didn't go over the point total was the one that Grossman admitted he wasn't prepared for. Prediction: New Orleans + 2 1/2 and over 43 1/2 points.
New England at Indianapolis - Familiar foes meet in the playoffs for the third time in four years. The winner both previous instances was New England.
It is impossible to argue with the combination of Patriot head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, which is 12-1 in the playoffs and has accounted for three Super Bowl titles. Brady also is a perfect 10-0 when playing in domes and 23-1 on artificial turf. New England is 5-0 in Conference Championship games.
The most pressure is on Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning, who never seems to win the big games. With five interceptions and one touchdown pass during this postseason, his 39.6 quarterback rating is the worst among the four remaining. Although the Colts are undefeated at home and have managed to win the last two regular season meetings, including 27-20 at New England Nov. 5, it's the Patriots who win when it really counts.
New England was the best road team this year, going 8-1 straight up and against the spread, and 4-0 straight up as a road underdog. The Patriots' defense was second in the NFL in points allowed, and it uses the 3-4 scheme that Manning has struggled against in the past.
Luckily for Indy its defense has stepped up in the playoffs, giving up only eight points to Kansas City and six to Baltimore. Because of that, it's hard to imagine this game turning into a shootout. Prediction: New England + 3 and Under 48 points.
Note - My picks are 8-3 so far in the NFL playoffs, which means I'm either on fire or due for a letdown. Let's knock on wood and see if things work out well again this Sunday.
Super Bowl - Last week's pick of New England to defeat New Orleans is still alive.
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