Nevada head coach Jay Norvell during the game against Kansas State on Sept. 18, 2021, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Forget Carson Strong. Forget Romeo Doubs. Forget Toa Taua and the Air Raid offense. The biggest advantage the Nevada Wolf Pack will have at Boise State this Saturday will be wearing his trademark visor, headset and no-nonsense grimace while stalking the sidelines.
If the Wolf Pack upsets the Broncos (the odds makers say the Pack is roughly a six-point underdog) it will be because Norvell’s three-plus decades of experience as a coach, much of it at the Power Five and NFL level, and nearly six decades of experience on this planet, will be the difference.
Norvell has coached in a Super Bowl. He’s coached in a NCAA national championship game. He’s coached in three bowl games and won two of them. He is now in his fifth year as a head coach and has won 27 games. He’s 58 years old and has one of the most impressive resumes for any head coach in the Mountain West’s history.
Boise State head coach Andy Avalos is 39 years old. His head coaching experience is all of four games. And he blew double-digit leads in two of them and lost. Norvell was playing in the Big Ten at Iowa when Avalos was learning how to eat solid food. Norvell began his coaching career when Avalos was learning how to divide and multiply and watching Barney the dinosaur and Blue’s Clues on television.
Both teams will have a wonderful collection of talent on the field on Saturday. That won’t be the difference. The Wolf Pack will have Norvell on the sideline. That needs to be the difference.
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Avalos is a defensive coach. He was Oregon’s defensive coordinator the past two years and was a Boise State defensive assistant and coordinator from 2012-18. Norvell is an offensive coach. He has been, arguably, one of the best wide receiver coaches in college football over the past two decades.
The last time Norvell went up against Avalos, though, all of his experience didn’t matter in 2019 in Eugene, Ore. Avalos was the defensive coordinator of the Oregon Ducks and the Ducks won 77-6, holding the Pack to just 12 first downs, 192 total yards and 2.8 yards per play. Wolf Pack quarterback Carson Strong was 13-of-25 for 89 yards and two interceptions.
Strong is a lot wiser, experienced, confident and determined now. Norvell has grown tremendously as a head coach since that day in Eugene. And Avalos doesn’t have that Oregon defense anymore.
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Norvell and Strong need to dominate Saturday. The same goes for offensive coordinator Matt Mumme who, we assume, still gets to call a play now and then. The Pack’s Air Raid simply needs to fill the Boise skies with sirens. Make sure they hear those Pack sirens up in Lewiston and over in Pocatello.
We really haven’t seen the explosiveness of the Pack offense yet this season, despite all of the hype. And, no, Idaho State doesn’t count. The Pack has played just two real football teams this year (California and Kansas State) and the Air Raid has been more like a little squeak toy than an ear-splitting Air Raid horn in those games, averaging 19.5 points a game. The last time 19 points was enough for the Pack to beat the Boise State Broncos was 1993 at Mackay Stadium (a 38-10 Pack win). The Pack has held Boise State to 19 points or fewer in Boise just twice in 20 games. The Pack scored just two touchdowns against both Cal and Kansas State. That likely won’t get the job done on Saturday. The Air Raid needs to make everyone in the state of Idaho run for cover on Saturday.
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The Wolf Pack, it seems, has been saving Strong for Boise State. Make no mistake, Strong is having a very good season so far, throwing for 955 yards and seven touchdowns in just three games. But we expected “outstanding” and not just “very good,” once all that silly first-round NFL draft pick talk started to surround the Pack quarterback.
The Pack, though, might have taken a slightly conservative approach with their over-hyped quarterback so far in anticipation of this highly important Mountain West opener. Strong is averaging 11.51 yards per completion this season. There are seven quarterbacks in the Mountain West alone (and 74 in the country) who have thrown for more yards on each of their completions. The Pack, it seems, has purposely thrown a blanket over the potential explosiveness of its offense.
Strong’s numbers for the first three games this season, while solid, also pale in comparison to his numbers after the first three games last year when he was still an unknown secret and not a first-round pick. Last year, in victories over Wyoming, UNLV and Utah State to start the year, Strong was 96-of-131 for 1,181 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. This year he is 83-of-122 for 955 yards, seven scores and two picks with the bulk of those stats coming against Idaho State (34-of-43 for 381 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions).
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The Wolf Pack’s offense has fallen victim to all of the hype surrounding its quarterback so far this year. Doubs has just one touchdown. Cole Turner and Tory Horton have combined for the same amount of touchdown catches as Harry Ballard (one). The only Pack receiver with more than one touchdown catch (Elijah Cooks with four) will miss the rest of the year with a foot injury.
And while we’re on the subject of feet, it must be noted that the Pack’s top two running backs (Toa Taua, Devonte Lee) have carried the ball just 52 times combined this year. Taua has a grand total of 25 rushing attempts (155 yards) despite the fact that he is averaging six yards each time he carries the ball. Taua’s brother, Vai, by the way, had more carries (32), yards (160) and touchdowns (one) in one game at Boise State in 2009 than Toa has had all year so far. It’s time the Pack’s Air Raid uses all of its weapons and not just the potential first-round NFL draft pick.
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Boise State has had its own share of problems and concerns this year trying to run the ball. That, of course, is good news for Pack fans who still have nightmares of Boise State runners like Brock Forsey, Ian Johnson, Doug Martin and Jay Ajayi shredding the Pack over the last 20 years. The first time the Pack played a game in Boise they allowed over 500 rushing yards. That likely won’t happen on Saturday. If it does, well, everything I wrote in the first item of this column will become null and void.
The Broncos have just 350 rushing yards all season in four games. Boise’s leading rusher (injury-prone George Holani) has all of 96 yards. Boise State is averaging 2.5 yards per rush. But don’t get too confident just yet, Pack fans. The last time the Pack defense took the field, it allowed 269 yards rushing to Kansas State, a team playing its backup quarterback, two weeks ago in a 38-17 loss. Cal had 153 rushing yards on the Pack in the season opener. If someone in Berkeley actually knew how to call plays Cal would have had over 200 yards rushing.
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Is New Mexico State going through a thinly-veiled audition this year with the hope of someday becoming a future Mountain West team? The Aggies, who used to be in the Western Athletic Conference (2005-12) with the Wolf Pack, will play seven games this season against Mountain West teams. Actual Mountain West teams play just eight league games.
The independent Aggies will come to Mackay Stadium on Oct. 9, collect a small check and hand the Pack an easy victory. The Pack, always in search of easy wins, will go to Las Cruces and destroy the Aggies once again next season. Let’s hope the Mountain West never gives New Mexico State an invite. There is already enough bad football and easy wins in the Mountain West. Adding New Mexico State is not the way to gain nationwide respect.
The Aggies are one of the worst Division I-A teams in the nation and have been for a very long time. Not even the Air Raid could save the Aggies. Hal Mumme, the father of the Air Raid as well as Wolf Pack offensive coordinator Matt Mumme, had an 11-38 record as New Mexico State head coach from 2005-08 (Matt was on his staff, helping direct the Air Raid).
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