Pack meets SDSU: Can either offense finally break through?

A look ahead to Saturday night’s (7:30 p.m.) Mountain West football game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (2-5, 0-3) and San Diego State Aztecs (3-3, 1-1) at Mackay Stadium:

HOW TO WATCH, LISTEN: CBS Sports Network, 94.5 FM.

THE SPREAD: San Diego State by 9 points.

THE RIVALRY: San Diego State leads, 8-6. The Aztecs beat Nevada, 23-21, last season in Carson, Calif., to break Nevada’s three-game winning streak in the rivalry. Nevada took a 21-20 lead on a 54-yard touchdown pass from Carson Strong to Romeo Doubs with 9:57 to go but lost on a 35-yard field goal by the Aztecs’ Matt Araiza with 1:21 left. Strong passed for 350 yards and three touchdowns but the Wolf Pack rushed for just eight yards on 15 carries. The last four games in the rivalry (2018-21) have all been decided by five points or less. Two other games in the rivalry went to overtime, both won by San Diego State in 2012 (39-38 in Reno) and 2013 (51-44 in San Diego).

AZTECS STRUGGLE IN RENO: San Diego State has lost four of six games in Reno. Max Dodge caught four touchdown passes as the Wolf Pack opened the rivalry in 1945 (the Aztecs took a bus to Reno) with a 44-6 victory at the original Mackay Stadium in front of 3,000 fans. The Pack also beat the Aztecs in Reno in 2014 (30-14 as Don Jackson and James Butler combined for 227 rushing yards), 2018 (28-24 behind Ty Gangi’s 235 passing yards and two touchdowns) and 2020 (26-21 as Strong tossed touchdown passes to Romeo Doubs and Cole Turner).

AT STAKE FOR NEVADA: The Wolf Pack, losers of five in a row, cannot lose more than one of their final five game this season if they want to remain bowl-eligible. Nevada has not lost six games in a row since it lost seven straight in 2000.

AT STAKE FOR SAN DIEGO STATE: The Aztecs are still very much alive in the West Division race at 1-1, trailing only 2-1 San Jose State. Nevada, at 0-3, is the only team in the division currently under .500 in league play.

NEVADA LAST WEEK: The Wolf Pack lost to Hawaii, 31-16, in Honolulu. Hawaii running back Dedrick Parson rushed for 136 yards and three touchdowns. The Pack had to settle for three field goals by Matthew Killam (20, 36 and 48 yards).

SAN DIEGO STATE LAST WEEK: The Aztecs were idle last week after beating Hawaii, 16-14, in San Diego two weeks ago. The Aztec and Wolf Pack games against Hawaii had some similarities. The Aztecs’ Jack Browning (like Nevada’s Matthew Killam) kicked three field goals against Hawaii (his 26-yarder won the game with seven seconds left); Hawaii’s Zion Bowens caught long touchdown passes in both games (66 yards against San Diego State and 48 against Nevada); Hawaii’s Dedrick Parson hurt both Nevada and San Diego State on the ground; and Parson scored on a 22-yard run to give Hawaii a 14-13 lead against the Aztecs with 1:19 to play.

THE HEAD COACHES: Nevada’s Ken Wilson is 2-5 overall in his first season as head coach and is still looking for his first Mountain West victory (0-3). Brady Hoke is 32-21 in his fifth year as the Aztecs’ head coach (2009-10 and 2020-present). Hoke also was the head coach at Ball State from 2003-2008 (34-38) and Michigan from 2011-2014 (31-20) and served as Tennessee’s interim head coach for two games (0-2) in 2017. Hoke was also Oregon’s defensive coordinator in 2016, four years before Wilson joined the Ducks’ defensive staff as linebackers coach (2020) and co-defensive coordinator (2021).

HORTON RETURNS TO RENO: Former Nevada Wolf Pack head coach Jeff Horton is now the Aztecs’ offensive coordinator. Horton, a Pack assistant from 1985-89 and 1992, led the Wolf Pack to a 7-4 record in 1993 as head coach before leaving to become UNLV’s head coach from 1994-98. Horton has been on San Diego State’s staff since 2011. He also served as the Aztecs’ offensive coordinator from 2015-19 before getting the title once again two weeks ago when Hoke fired offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski. “I’m excited for this opportunity but I’m disappointed how it happened,” Horton said before the Aztecs’ game against Hawaii. “I feel like I’m a loyal Aztec. I’m loyal to Coach Hoke and the players. But I look at this as I’m an interim. I’m not looking to be the permanent offensive coordinator.” Horton coached with Wilson at Nevada in 1989 and 1992 as assistants under Chris Ault, and Wilson was Horton’s inside linebacker coach in 1993. Horton was 1-4 against Nevada as UNLV’s head coach and the Aztecs have gone 6-4 against Nevada with Horton as an assistant.

AZTECS’ QUARTERBACK CHANGES: Jalen Mayden will start at quarterback for the Aztecs on Saturday. Mayden, who was playing safety (nine tackles this year) just two weeks ago, is the fifth quarterback to play for the Aztecs this season after Braxton Burmeister, Kyle Crum, Will Haskell and Liu Aumavae. Burmeister, who started the first five games, missed the Hawaii game with a concussion and is now the Aztecs’ backup quarterback. He also was seen working out at wide receiver this week. Haskell has since entered the transfer portal while Crum injured his collarbone three weeks ago. Mayden transferred from Mississippi State two years ago as a quarterback but switched to safety this past spring. He was 24-of-36 for 322 yards and a touchdown against Hawaii. He also played one drive as a quarterback in the Mountain West championship game last season against Utah State and was 5-of-6 for 50 yards and a touchdown. “We had a guy who was a safety come in and say, ‘Hey, do you need help at quarterback?’ Hoke said. “That’s pretty cool.”

NORCO HIGH QUARTERBACK REUNION: Both San Diego State and Nevada have former Norco (Calif.) quarterbacks on their roster. The Wolf Pack has Shane Illingworth, who has started three games this year and is 32-of-53 for 234 yards and an interception. Illingworth played at Norco from 2016-19 before going to Oklahoma State for two years. San Diego State’s Kyle Crum replaced Illingworth at Norco and started in 2020 and last year. The two were teammates at Norco in 2018 and 2019. Crum, who currently has a broken collarbone, is 5-of-17 for 53 yards with a touchdown and an interception this year.

RENO-SAN DIEGO CONNECTION: Jeff Horton won’t be the only Reno-San Diego connection on Saturday. The Aztecs have three Northern Nevada football products on their roster — sophomore offensive lineman Joey Wright (Bishop Manogue), junior defensive lineman Wyatt Draeger (Reno) and junior linebacker Vai Kaho (Bishop Manogue). Draeger has four tackles and Kaho has two this season. Wright has played in six games. The Wolf Pack has three San Diego high school players on its roster in freshman offensive lineman Isaiah World, sophomore defensive back Marquese Allen-Patmon and sophomore kicker Matthew Killam. Both Allen-Patmon and World went to Lincoln, which also produced NFL star running backs Marcus Allen and Terrell Davis. Nevada also has former Aztecs’ players Baylor Horning (quarterback) and offensive lineman Joey Capra on its roster.

TAUA, LEE STRUGGLE AGAINST AZTECS: Wolf Pack running backs Toa Taua and Devonte Lee have basically run into a brick wall when facing SDSU. Both Pack backs have faced San Diego State four times with little success, though it must be noted that they have only faced the Aztecs while in the Pack’s former Air Raid offense. Taua has rushed for 119 yards on 47 carries without a touchdown, averaging 2.5 yards a carry. Lee has picked up 70 yards on 25 carries (2.8 a carry) but has scored twice. Both Taua and Lee have produced in the passing game against the Aztecs. Taua has 17 catches for 147 yards while Lee has caught seven passes for 36 yards. The Wolf Pack as a team has not rushed for as much as 100 yards against San Diego State in a game since it gained 229 yards on 47 carries in 2014, thanks to Don Jackson (124 yards on 20 carries) and James Butler (103 yards on 15 carries). Over the last seven games against San Diego State, the Pack has run the ball 172 times for just 346 yards, an average of just 2.0 yards a carry.

WHAT NEVADA NEEDS TO DO TO WIN: San Diego State is averaging just 18.5 points and 285 yards a game this year while Nevada is at 21.7 points and 291 yards. So the defenses could decide this game. Time of possession, turnovers and field goals will also likely play a huge part in who wins. Taua and Lee also need to produce something on the ground, if only to take the pressure off the Wolf Pack quarterback (either Nate Cox or Shane Illingworth). The Wolf Pack pass defense, which has picked off 10 passes this year, also needs to remind Aztec quarterback Jalen Mayden that there was a reason why he switched to safety this spring.

WHAT SAN DIEGO STATE NEEDS TO DO TO WIN: The Aztecs will likely try to pound the Pack, mainly with running backs Jordan Byrd (307 yards) and Chance Bell (105). Burmeister might also slip in behind center and do what he does best and run (185 yards). Everything on offense with the Aztecs always starts with the run. The Wolf Pack, after all, still has nightmares of watching Rashaad Penny and Donnel Pumphrey pummel the Pack from 2013-17.  The two combined to run for 1,021 yards and nine touchdowns on just 114 carries (9.0 yards a carry) against the Pack over eight combined games. Penny and Pumphrey will not be in uniform at Mackay on Saturday, so Mayden will have to be a threat through the air.

PREDICTION: Nevada 15, San Diego State 14. The Pack wins the field goal battle, 5-4. San Diego State also gets a safety because its defense will likely be energized at the start to look up and not see former Pack quarterbacks Cody Fajardo, Ty Gangi or Carson Strong for a change. San Diego State, though, is trying to go on the road and win a game with a safety at quarterback, a quarterback at wide receiver and a running game and a defense that doesn’t strike fear into the opposition the way they once did the past decade or so. For Nevada, it will be Homecoming at Mackay Stadium and that losing streak is growing more annoying by the week. If the Pack is ever going to win another game this season it might as well be at home against a team that also can’t score.