Jim Hartman
Nevada Republicans have taken – by a wafer-thin margin – a statewide voter registration lead over Democrats for the first time in nearly 20 years.
At the end of January, there were 187 more active voters registered as Republicans than Democrats in Nevada, according to the voter registration report from the Secretary of State. It’s the first time Republicans had a registration edge over Democrats since 2007.
Republicans now have 618,539 voters, 29.58% of the electorate, and Democrats have 618,352 voters, representing 29.57%.
The shift confirms Nevada as a battleground state in national elections three months after President Trump carried Nevada for the first GOP presidential win in the state since 2004.
With Democrats’ voter registration advantage now erased, Republicans, who have historically turned out at higher rates than Democrats, should have an easier path toward winning elections.
Despite beating Democrats, both parties still lag registered nonpartisans who became the largest political group in the state in 2022 and whose share of the electorate continues to grow. There are 696,319 registered nonpartisans making up 33.3% of the state’s nearly 2.1 million active registered voters.
Since 2021, Nevada began automatically registering people to vote when they apply for a driver’s license from the DMV. Under this system, people are registered as nonpartisan if they don’t pick a party on their application.
Both parties say they plan to focus on nonpartisan voters.
In March 2020, Democrats made up 38% of the state’s electorate, leading the GOP by more than 95,000 voters. Republicans since then have been slowly closing that gap.
Beginning in 2007, then-U.S. Sen. Harry Reid’s political organization made huge strides in registering voters for Democrats, taking the lead over Republicans.
With Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign generating excitement, Democrats were able to run a massive voter registration drive for the state’s presidential nominating caucus and expand the party’s lead.
Democrats maintained that advantage for almost 18 years.
But that lead dwindled each year and has now vanished.
The trend is most evident in Clark County where nearly three-quarters of Nevada voters reside.
In Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Nevada, Democrats had a 12% voter registration advantage in Clark County, with Biden winning the county by 9%.
However, by 2024, the Democrats’ registration lead in Clark County had shrunk to 6% with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris winning the county by less than 3% and losing the state.
Nevada’s rural counties have also become dramatically “redder.”
In Douglas County, Republicans now outnumber Democrats 22,131 to 7,765. In Elko County, the Republican registration advantage is 15,748 to 3,347.
Nationally, Democrats face a declining trendline in the number of Americans who are registering as Democrats.
In 2008, among the 31 states where voters declare a party affiliation when they register to vote, Democrats held a registration advantage in 21 states while the GOP had the advantage in just seven.
By 2024, party registrations were more evenly split. Democrats had an advantage in 17 states and Republicans in 14.
Overall, between 2008 and 2024, just four states trended more Democratic with 22 states trending more Republican in registrations.
The first red flag sign for Democrats’ registration woes in a swing state was Florida with a 6% advantage for Democrats in 2008 becoming an astonishing 7.8% advantage for Republicans in 2024.
There’s evidence of Republican registration gains in other swings states, too:
In Pennsylvania, the Democrats’ 1.2 million voter registration advantage in 2008 now has a gap of 189,000.
In North Carolina, Democrats’ registration lead fell from 322,000 four year ago to just 37,500 this month.
Republicans in Arizona have doubled their lead over the past four years from 140,000 voters to more than 300,000 in February, growing their advantage to 5.8%.
Democrats are struggling to overcome record polling unpopularity.
E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.