Santoro: How good is the Pack? We’re still finding out

Air Force’s Luke Kearney (3) fights for possession with the Wolf Pack’s Justin McBride (21) during Tuesday night’s Mountain West game at Lawlor Events Center.

Air Force’s Luke Kearney (3) fights for possession with the Wolf Pack’s Justin McBride (21) during Tuesday night’s Mountain West game at Lawlor Events Center.
Photo by Steve Ranson.

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Sports Fodder:

Just how good is this Nevada Wolf Pack men's basketball team? The answer to that question depends on when you ask it. The Pack was considered a solid, dangerous team for the first seven games of the season, winning six. The NCAA Tournament, barring any unforeseen injuries, NIL money squabbles or pandemics, looked like the natural final destination for the program for the third consecutive season.

Then something happened. We're not sure what happened or when it happened. But it took place sometime between a 90-78 victory over Oklahoma State in the Shriners Children's Classic in Charleston, S.C., on Nov. 24 and a lifeless 68-57 loss to Washington State at Lawlor Events Center on Dec. 2.

The team just hasn't been the same. Something is missing. An edge. A 40-minute fire that burns in their gut from the opening tip to the final buzzer. Whatever it was that produced a 6-1 record in November has so far vanished in December and January. The Pack has gone 4-6 since that 6-1 start and hasn't beaten a quality team since whipping Oklahoma State in South Carolina nearly eight weeks ago. The only victories since Nov. 24 have been close affairs over bad teams (Air Force and Fresno State) in the last week or blowouts at home against bad (Texas Southern) and mediocre (South Dakota State) teams.

You can't get to the NCAA Tournament by beating just the likes of Texas Southern, South Dakota State, Air Force and Fresno State after Thanksgiving. That also includes San Jose State, which comes to Lawlor this Saturday afternoon.

Every team, to be sure, goes through lulls during a long season. It's expected and even planned for, especially during the holiday season, which leads into the conference season. The great teams still win when they are flat and disinterested and in a lull. See the 2018-19 (29-5), 2017-18 (29-8) and 2016-17 (28-7) Pack in case your memory needs refreshing. This Pack team, it's now been proven, doesn't have that type of greatness.

But, we'll keep insisting, they are talented enough to beat god-awful Fresno State and Air Force teams even when they emotionally limp onto the court flat and discombobulated like they did this past week. That is a positive sign. Sort of.

This 10-game, eight-week lull, though, is starting to tip-toe into dangerous waters. The Pack, truth be told, was very fortunate to escape with narrow victories over Fresno State (77-66 in overtime on the road) and Air Force (68-62 at home) this past week. Those two teams are a combined 0-12 in conference play right now and 7-27 overall. Those 27 losses, by the way, include 13 by a dozen points or more (none against the Pack). It's not too difficult to imagine that, had the Wolf Pack played any other teams in the Mountain West this past week other than Air Force or Fresno State, we'd likely be talking about a Wolf Pack team with an 8-9 overall record, 0-6 in the Mountain West and riding a dumpster-fire six-game losing streak.

But we're not. This is not a silver-and-blue dumpster fire. It's just a team that has lost its killer instinct, a little aggressiveness, confidence and cohesion. It's still just the middle of January. But this lull has to come to an end soon before, well, not even a Hall of Fame-quality coach like Steve Alford can fix things.

The Pack needs consistent effort, game after game, from its leaders, the guys not even Alford will remove from the starting lineup. You know who they are (Nick Davidson, Tre Coleman and Kobe Sanders). But all Davidson, Coleman and Sanders have given us since Thanksgiving are here-today, gone-tomorrow performances. The Pack, despite who is in the starting lineup, also needs to settle on a reliable, dependable, productive, five-player unit Alford can rely on in the final minutes of close games. Right now, he's just picking guys out of a hat at the end of games and hoping for the best.

There is still a lot to like about this Pack team, even through this frustrating lull since Turkey Day. This team is still a quality defensive team, one of the best on the West Coast. That shows they are still giving effort, listening to their coaches and are still competing. Once the shots start falling (mainly threes and free throws) on a consistent basis the wins will start flowing like they did in November.

Just one loss this entire season, don't forget, has been by more than five points.

A week ago, we laid out a path for this team to win 21 games in the regular season and be solidly in the conversation for an NCAA Tournament bid. That path involved sweeping the mediocre and bad teams remaining on the schedule (10 games against Fresno State, Air Force, UNLV, Colorado State, San Jose State and Wyoming) and splitting the six games against the quality teams (San Diego State, Boise State, New Mexico, Utah State).

The Pack is still on that path.

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There is a school of thought out there that this Pack team has been unluckier and more unfortunate than mediocre or flat over the last 10 games. There is a lot of truth to that, for sure.

There was, after all, a did-I-just-see-that 82-81 loss in overtime when New Mexico's Nelly Joseph picked the ball off the floor and hit a 12-footer from about the free-throw line as time expired. The basketball gods were clearly against the Pack on that night. There have also been close losses (five points or less) to Colorado State, Loyola Marymount, Wyoming and Utah State that could have just as easily been victories with the right silver-and-blue spin and bounce of the ball.

Bad luck has clearly been a part of this current Pack lull.

There is another school of thought, though, that a few concerns keep popping up like spicy foods in the middle of the night. There's been sub-par shooting from the free-throw line or beyond the arc as well, as the opponent making one of the Pack mainstays (Davidson, Coleman or Sanders) disappear on a given night.

That's not bad luck. That's an inconsistent team showing its inconsistencies.

Another concern also keeps rearing its ugly head. The Pack keeps starting games as if they want to be somewhere else, playing the first 20 minutes as if it's a meaningless NBA All-Star (or regular-season) game. In all six losses since the Charleston tournament, the Pack has been down by at least eight points in the first half. They've also trailed by 12 to Fresno State, 11 to Air Force and by seven to South Dakota State at one point in the first half before winning in the end because, well, it was Fresno State, Air Force and South Dakota State.

That's not bad luck. That's a concern that needs to be corrected.

•••

The Mountain West basketball schedule, no matter how each Mountain West coach likens it to the Bataan Death March, is always forgiving to teams than can actually walk, chew gum and dribble a ball at the same time without bumping into the scorer's table. The Pack, despite its current 10-game malaise, still qualifies as one of those walking, gum-chewing and dribbling savants in the Mountain West.

The Pack will finish its current three-game Fresno State-Air Force-San Jose State stroll through the dregs of the conference on Saturday with a game at home against San Jose State. It's likely the Pack by Saturday night will own a fool's gold three-game winning streak as well as an 11-7 overall record. Expect Wolf Pack NIL donations and ticket sales to the Mountain West tournament to soar early next week.

The following three games (at Utah State and Boise State and home against San Diego State) will be a struggle but that stretch will be followed by 10 soft-landing games to finish off the regular season in which the Pack will only play one of the top teams (San Diego State) on the road over its last 10 games. You can beat anybody in the Mountain West at home and seven of the 11 teams anywhere at any time.

But, just in case, shore up the energy and sense of urgency in the first half to make sure.

•••

A week ago, we also told you the Pack needs an "I'll Make it" type of player, a mythical Jimmy Chitwood type from the movie "Hoosiers" that isn't afraid of putting his teammates on his back in the final minutes.

Well, it's doubtful that sort of player is on the roster this year. The last two games against weaklings Air Force and Fresno State proved that once and for all.

Nobody on the team has been consistent enough to be that bold, confident and aggressive game after game. Only three guys on the roster (Davidson, Sanders, Coleman) could even think of taking on that role because, well, they are the only ones Alford hasn't had the nerve to put on the bench at the start of games. But could Alford simply feed the ball at the end of the Air Force game to Davidson when he was 0-for-5 at the free-throw line? Could he tell Coleman to hog the ball against Fresno State when he was on the way to a 2-for-11 night from the floor and 1-for-9 on threes? Could Alford deem Sanders the go-to guy against Utah State when he was 3-for-11 from the floor and 0-for-4 on threes?

Of course not. Alford, right now, doesn't know who he can depend on each given night. It's a different guy every game, if there is one at all.

Yes, of course, it’s easy for a coach when he can just tell Caleb Martin, Jordan Caroline, Jalen Harris, Kenan Blackshear, Cam Newton or Jarod Lucas to simply go out and win the game. Those guys, with that special type of mentality, aggressiveness and confidence, aren't putting on a Pack uniform this year.

•••

Sunday's Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills winner will end up winning the Super Bowl on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.

It's time either the Ravens' Lamar Jackson or Bills' Josh Allen wins a Super Bowl, given that they are arguably the two best players in the league on the best teams in the NFL this year. If it is ever going to happen, this could very well be the year one of them goes to Kansas City next weekend in the AFC Championship and knocks off Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

I know, I know. You'll believe it when you see it. Jackson has done nothing but disappoint in the playoffs and Allen and the Bills can't win an AFC title game in Kansas City as long as Mahomes is breathing. Jackson and the Ravens couldn't even beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in Baltimore in the AFC title game last year.

The Chiefs hosted the AFC title game five years in a row (2018-2022) and only won three times (beating Tennessee in 2019, Buffalo in 2020 and Cincinnati in 2021). So, they are not perfect at home. They can be beaten, especially in a year like this one when they won 11 games by fewer than 10 points. Mahomes and the Chiefs haven't even scored more than 30 points in any game this year. They are ripe for a loss in the postseason at home and it might even happen this weekend against the Houston Texans.

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The NFC playoffs couldn't be more unexciting. The Detroit Lions are running on fumes right now on defense, the Philadelphia Eagles offense is a complete mystery every week and does anybody really trust the Washington Commanders or Los Angeles Rams?

If Jalen Hurts has his wits about him, he should be enough to get the Eagles to the Super Bowl. Then again, Jared Goff and the Lions just might go out and outscore everyone on the way to New Orleans. A Lions Super Bowl against either Buffalo or Baltimore would be a treat, sort of an NBA All-Star game in shoulder pads and helmets.

But we'll probably get Chiefs-Eagles and fall asleep by halftime.

This week's NFL predictions: Chiefs 21, Texans 17; Lions 35, Commanders 24; Bills 28, Ravens 27; Eagles 13, Rams 12.

•••

Former Nevada Wolf Pack wide receiver, defensive back and linebacker Daiyan Henley just enjoyed one of the greatest NFL seasons by an ex-Pack player in school history. The 25-year-old Henley finished eighth in the league with 147 total tackles for the Los Angeles Chargers in just his second season in the NFL.

Henley, who played 2017-21 for the Pack and 2022 for Washington State, has had a storybook football career. The Los Angeles product began at Nevada as a wide receiver in 2017, catching eight passes for 103 yards and three touchdowns, one each against Toledo, Colorado State and Air Force, all from quarterback Ty Gangi.

The Pack, since it always had seemingly a dozen talented wide receivers every year in the Jay Norvell era (2017-21), then decided to transition Henley to defense starting slowly in 2018 and 2019 and full speed ahead in 2020 and 2021. Henley, by 2021, was one of the best defensive players on the West Coast even though nobody but the Mountain West knew it at the time. He finished 2021 at Nevada with 103 tackles, four interceptions and even scored a pair of touchdowns, on a 50-yard interception return against UNLV and a 56-yard fumble return against San Jose State.

Henley then bolted to the transfer portal after the season when Norvell bolted to Colorado State. And since Henley was no longer a wide receiver Norvell, apparently, wasn't all that interested in him anymore. Washington State defensive coordinator Brian Ward, who was the Pack defensive coordinator and saw up close what Henley did in 2021, was more than interested. Ward quickly snatched Henley up and watched the undersized linebacker (6-foot-1, 220 pounds) pile up 106 tackles, 12 for a loss, in the Pac-12.

The Chargers made him a third-round pick in the NFL draft the following April and now Henley is an NFL standout, going from an afterthought wide receiver in 2017 catching passes from Ty Gangi to seven years later being the best linebacker on an NFL playoff team that also has Khalil Mack.