Jim Hartman
The 2026 race for Nevada governor is underway and rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report, the respected national campaign forecaster.
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, 62, has signaled his intention to seek a second term. His only currently identifiable opponent is Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Ford, 52, termed out as attorney general, has expressed his intention to run for governor.
The Cook Report lists six states with tossup gubernatorial contests.
Two incumbent Democratic governor races, Wisconsin’s Tony Evers and Arizona’s Katie Hobbs, plus three open seats with no incumbents in Michigan, Georgia and Virginia, are categorized as tossups.
Just one race with a sitting Republican governor – Lombardo in Nevada – is rated a tossup.
In 2022, Lombardo was the only challenger in the country to defeat an incumbent governor and Nevada was the only blue-to-red governor flip that year.
Lombardo narrowly defeated Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak (by 1.51%), with a margin of 15,386 votes.
While considered vulnerable, Lombardo is bolstered by Nevada Republican voter registration gains which gave the GOP a wafer-thin lead of 187 voters over registered Democrats in February, after President Trump carried Nevada for the first Republican presidential win in the state since 2004.
The latest campaign financial reports show Lombardo with a huge war chest, exceeding $5.5 million on hand at year end. Lombardo raised $3.363 million in 2024.
Ford is far behind Lombardo in fundraising with about $440,000 cash on hand, after raising $537,414 in 2024.
First elected attorney general in 2018, Ford very narrowly defeated former GOP Assemblyman Wes Duncan (by 0.47%), winning by only 4,533 votes. He was easily re-elected in 2022, beating his far-right ultra-MAGA GOP opponent Sigal Chattah (by 7.89%), a landslide margin of 77,179 votes.
As for polls, the Lombardo campaign touts internal polling conducted in December by GOP-friendly The Tarrance Group that “shows Gov. Lombardo’s proposals on housing, public safety, economic development, health care, criminal justice and school choice all have the support of over 71% of Nevadans.”
An independent poll done in January by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) with data from their latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) survey found Lombardo “is maintaining a strong standing.”
“Gov. Lombardo has maintained positive numbers, demonstrating real political strength. The January NVPOP shows that about half of Nevada voters have a favorable view of the governor and approve of the job he is doing giving him double-digit net favorability and job approval,” the survey commentary concludes.
Lombardo’s net job approval rating was +12 and his net favorability rating was +13.
Additional good news for Lombardo: there is little appetite for a primary challenge, with 58% of Republicans indicating they would prefer Lombardo remain unopposed for the Republican nomination for governor.
While Lombardo’s ratings are strong, the current legislative session presents challenges.
Legislative Democrats are trusted more than Lombardo by Nevada voters on issues like climate change (legislative Democrats +20), abortion rights (+19), health care (+10), affordable housing (+9), homelessness (+7), and education (+5), according to the NVPOP survey.
Lombardo’s biggest strengths are on taxes and crime. Voters strongly support his continuing pledge of no new taxes or increase in existing taxes during his term of office.
To reduce crime, voters overwhelmingly trust Lombardo, the former Clark County sheriff, over legislative Democrats by +40.
Lombardo’s re-election may turn on President Trump’s standing with Nevada voters 20 months from now.
Trump’s approval rating turned negative in several recent opinion polls, a potentially ominous sign for the 2026 midterms.
The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections, including a Republican loss of more than 40 seats in 2018 during Trump’s first term.
In the 2018 midterms, Nevada Democrats swept all statewide races except for Secretary of State.
E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.