Polls still show close Nevada Senate race
November 1, 2016
The polls are mixed for Nevada's U.S. Senate race.
Republican Joe Heck has lost his lead in one poll, now falling slightly behind Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada's race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Harry Reid.
A KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds Cortez Masto leading Heck 43 percent to 41 percent among Likely Nevada Voters. Seven percent pt for some other candidate in the race, and 8percent are undecided.
Heck posted a 44 percent to 40 percent lead over his Democratic opponent in mid-September. In late July just after the Democratic National Convention, the two were in a virtual tie — Heck 42 percent, Cortez Masto 41 percent.
Cortez Masto, a former Nevada attorney general, has the backing of 81 percent of Democrats and eight percent (8 percent) of the state's Republicans. Heck, a U.S. congressman, picks up 79 percent of the GOP vote and 10 percent of Democrats. He also holds a 10-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.
Heck who withdrew his support from GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump after the airing of an 11-year-old video showing Trump making graphic sexual comments about women has lost ground among Republicans since last month. Cortez Masto has gained support among Democrats and unaffiliateds.
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The survey of 826 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on Oct. 20-22 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research,
Heck leads among men, while Cortez Masto has a double-digit advantage among women. The GOP candidate led among all age groups in September but now is ahead only among middle-aged voters.
Cortez Masto is well ahead among both blacks and Hispanics. Heck has smaller leads among whites and other minority voters.
Forty-three percent of all Nevada voters view Cortez Masto favorably, while 49 percent share an unfavorable opinion of her. This includes 21 percent with a Very Favorable view and 29 percent with a Very Unfavorable one.
For Heck, favorables are 42 percent, unfavorables 51 percent, with 19 percent who hold a Very Favorable opinion and 31 percent who view him Very Unfavorably.
In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll conducted in late October, Heck, 49 percent, leads Cortez Masto, 42 percent, in the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Four percent are for another candidate, and 5 percent are undecided. In September, Heck, 47 percent, and Cortez Masto, 45 percent, were competitive; 55 percent of likely voters with a candidate preference, little changed from September, strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.
"One key observation in the U.S. Senate race in Nevada is that Heck outperforms Trump among key groups in the state. Heck does better than Trump among Democrats, independents, and Latinos," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "In contrast, Cortez Masto does not outperform Clinton in Nevada."
The Las Vegas Review Journal had Cortez Masto up by 1 percent, while the Gravis poll has Cortez Masto up by 6 percent. Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm in conjunction with Breitbart News Network, conducted a random survey of 875 registered voters across Nevada. The poll was conducted on Octo. 25 and has a margin of error of ± 3.3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
Heck leads Catherine Cortez Masto, 48 percent to 44 percent, and he also had a 4-point advantage in an Emerson poll conducted on Oct 29.
The Monmouth University Poll shows Heck holding a small 45 to 42 percent lead over Cortez Masto, with Tom Jones of the Independent American Party at 4 percent and "none of these candidates" at 5 percent. Heck led by a similar 46 to 43 percent in September and by 42 to 40 percent in July.