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September 14, 2007
According to a Civil Air Patrol report published online, 29 percent of people involved in a crash will survive.
If Steve Fossett crashed there is a 60 percent chance he would have been injured. If so, there is only a 6 percent chance he survived past the first 48 hours. If Fossett was uninjured, his chances were 50-50 in the first 72 hours.
After that his chances diminish rapidly. The average time to find someone who hasn’t filed a flight plan is 62.6 hours. An average emergency locator transmitter requires a force of 5-9 times the force of gravity to go off. Most have a switch in the cockpit that can allow them to be set off manually.
An ELT gives off a radio signal, which requires someone to be in the line of sight with the transmitter, not all that likely given Nevada’s and eastern California’s terrain. The visibility of a crash site in a wooded area is about half a mile.
The information came from http://www.lebanoncap.org.
The wind is expected to die down a bit today and the National Weather Service and the red flag has been struck without any apparent damage.
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The high today will be a cool 78 degrees with winds running 5-15 mph with gusts of about 25 mph. The winds will be a tad slower over the weekend, with the gusts just hitting 20 mph.
It was hazy this morning, but the smoke didn’t have much to do with it. With the wind from Thursday, whatever was here will be pretty much cleared out or headed east in a hurry. Blame the haze on the particulate matter being raised into the air.
The highs are expected to remain in the upper 70s through late next week, with lows dipping into the 40s. There is a slight chance for some moisture later in the week, but clear skies are expected until then.