Resorts running to some degree
Week 15 has already begun in the National Football League’s 17-week regular season. It’s definitely getting late, but it’s not too late for handicappers to make some more money.
One strategy bettors can use to help them pick winners, and avoid painful losers, is to look at a team’s tendencies. Here’s a review of the season so far:
Note – All these numbers are against the spread (ATS), could vary a bit with other sources, and don’t include last night’s Denver-Houston game.
The best teams to bet on this year no matter where and when the play have been New England, Green Bay and Cleveland with 10-3 point spread records. Jacksonville is at 9-4. The teams to almost always bet against have been Baltimore (2-11) and San Francisco (3-9-1). Denver and Chicago are next at 4-9.
Some teams play very well ATS only at home, such as Buffalo at 6-1, San Diego 5-1, Seattle 5-1-1 and Tampa Bay 4-1-1. Terrible home teams include Miami, who is the only team yet to cover a game at 0-4-1, Carolina, New Orleans and Oakland are 1-5, while Philadelphia and Kansas City sit at 1-5-1.
Good road warriors are the New York Giants at 5-2. Awful on the road are Cincinnati (1-4-1) and Houston (2-5).
Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 as a home favorite, while Atlanta is a horrible home underdog with a 1-5 ATS record. New Orleans is a good road favorite at 3-1, while St. Louis is a bad road dog at 1-4-1.
Of course, a very important stat to look at is how a team is doing right now. The hottest clubs are Jacksonville and Seattle, both having covered five consecutive games. Minnesota (4-0) and San Diego (3-0) are next.
Atlanta obviously has experienced serious difficulties, which helps explain the Falcons’ current four-game losing streak ATS. San Francisco (1-7), Carolina (1-6), Baltimore (1-6) and Kansas City (1-5) are also having issues.
Betting on totals can be just as profitable as betting on sides.
If you are like most people when betting totals and like to bet on the Over, the teams you should be looking at are Denver (11-2 Overs), Dallas (10-3), Cleveland (10-3), New England (9-3-1) and Green Bay (9-4). Cleveland, however, has had three consecutive Under games.
If you don’t mind betting on the Under, you could take a shot on St. Louis and Tennessee at 9-4 Unders. San Francisco is next (8-4-1 Under), while Pittsburgh and Carolina are 8-5.
When playing at home, other squads that tend to go Over are the New York Giants and Minnesota 5-1 Overs. Interestingly, winless Miami is next at 4-1. San Francisco has been an almost perfect Under play at 5-0-1.
A team that is perfect on the road is Dallas going Over (6-0). Jacksonville is also strong at 5-1. Very good Under bets when visiting besides St. Louis (6-1), have been Atlanta (5-1), the Giants (5-1-1) and Minnesota (5-2). Notice that the Giants and Minnesota both flip-flop between home and road games.
Again, it is important to look at how a team is doing lately when betting on totals. Going into last night Denver was the most consistent team with six consecutive Overs, with Jacksonville at 6-0-1. Green Bay, Atlanta and Oakland have four straight Overs. Pittsburgh is the strongest Under team with four in a row, then Cincinnati with three.
So, there it is so far this season. Remember, these are not predictions, they are trends I wouldn’t want to go against. Each side and total in each game should be treated exclusively. Watch as many games as you can, and decide for yourself what the best bets are. Look at this year’s scores and who played whom, and compare them to the actual numbers of this week’s point spreads and totals. Also, don’t forget to pay attention to player injuries, quarterback changes and possible weather effects.
By this time next week, the first bowl game of the season will be in the books. The pick in Thursday’s Poinsettia Bowl is Navy and Utah to go Under 67 points.