Corner is shooting for the moon
November 1, 2006
Take a deep breath and let it out slowly, repeat. OK, now we can continue. Again, for the third straight week we won both games.
Last week’s picks of the Falcons and Colts, both underdogs, won their games. If you had made a prediction that the season record would be 12-4, I would have laughed out loud. But it’s true.
If we make 34 picks during the regular season, two each week for 17 weeks, we would need to win 19 to secure a profit. Nineteen wins would give us a winning percentage of 55 percent. So, with 16 picks down and 18 to go, a paltry record of 7-11 would be a small winner. We need to shoot for the moon, let’s go into the second half of the season with optimism and confidence that we could finish over 60 percent.
We are going to go to the well one more time; for the first time ever here in the corner we will be taking a team for a third straight week. That team will be the Atlanta Falcons. While I am not ready to say they are going to win anything beyond their next game, they are receiving a lot of hype for their play this season.
This week they travel to Detroit to take on the 1-6 Lions. The last two weeks they have beaten the Steelers at home and the Bengals in Cincinnati, both times as the underdog. This time they are a 5 1/2 point favorite and the total is 47.
Take Atlanta in this game and lay the points. The Falcons still have the best rushing team in the league and Michael Vick is playing at the top of his game right now. Detroit is coming off a bye week but that does not worry me, it is set up now to compete for the first pick in the draft and GM Matt Millen would love to bring in another wide receiver.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are off to a dreadful start for a Super Bowl champion. Their record is 2-5 and they are coming off a loss to the hapless Raiders. This week doesn’t get any easier when they host the Denver Broncos, who are coming off their second loss of the season to the Colts.
The opening line for the game favors the Steelers by 2 1/2 with a total that started at 34 and quickly rose to 37. The Steelers are desperate for a win and know that they are going to be in a dog fight in this game. During last week’s loss to the Raiders they allowed only 98 yards of total offense, and will need another standout defensive effort.
The Steelers offense will face the stingiest defense in the AFC, as the Broncos have allowed just more than 11 points per game. The pick here is to go under the total. I like the early rise in the total and do expect it to drop some before they actually play the game so don’t delay, get out early.
Jason Kolenut is the Casino Fandango Race andSports Book supervisor.