It’s good to roll over when picking the NFL
September 15, 2007
So we start the season off on a positive note. Overall week 1 was successful as we went 2-1, with the roll-over pick winning.
The roll-over pick, a new addition to the column this year and one which I said I would explain this week, was a winner.
The roll-over pick concept was introduced to me by possibly the craziest person I have ever met, but it is the best idea he has ever had. The concept is simple, start with a single bet, a straight bet. When you win, and we did last week, you take the entire ticket and reinvest in the next week.
If you started with say $22, as I mentioned last week, you would have a ticket to cash worth 42. This week when we win, the entire amount rolled over would become 80 (I will take the liberty of rounding to make it easy). If I pick a roll-over winner five straight weeks, we would have turned $22 into more than $550. Another thing to note is that after a win we do not have to invest any new money, almost half of the wager is house money.
So with a $42 ticket in hand we go forth. The second week of the NFL season brings us five games with double digit point spreads, and the favorites are all home teams. This is not unusual as a majority of home favorites have won and covered in the second week the last few years. The odds makers are just trying to level the betting field by inflating the spreads.
This week let’s start with the roll-over pick. The team I like is the New Orleans Saints, but what I do not like about the line is that they are favored on the road. It’s always tough laying points on the road. The reason I am choosing to make this my roll-over pick is because of their running game, I believe they will run all day in Tampa. They also have extra rest having played on Thursday. The Bucs are a team with more questions than quarterbacks, and no one to run the ball, after Cadillac Williams got smacked in the ribs. Let’s reinvest the entire ticket and ride the Saints minus 3 1/2 points to a little more than $80.
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With the other two picks this week I will start in Pittsburgh where the Steelers will host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills thoughts will undoubtedly be with their teammate Kevin Everett, who will be lying in a hospital with a spinal injury. The Steelers are favored by 10 and the total is 37 1/2. The pick here is the over; emotion alone should mean at least two touchdowns for the Bill and to go over in this game we will need the Bills to score.
The last pick is the Minnesota Vikings getting 3 points on the road in Detroit. Both teams won last week and the winner will have at least a share of the division lead. The Vikings could be a solid team this year if they can keep hot shot rookie running back Adrian Peterson healthy. The Lions should be a high scoring team this year, but the Vikings defense will be up to the task. Take the 3 points in this game and give the money line some consideration.
JasonKolenut’s column appears every Sunday in the Appeal.
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