It’s not win or lose – it’s whether you cover
If I told you that the Saints were the only undefeated team in the NFL, you might say “but they lost last week and the Colts, Ravens and Bears have not lost a game yet.”
Well, if you opened the newspaper and looked at the standings you would be correct. However, the Saints are the only team that has cashed in all four weeks of the season, and that is the only thing that counts.
A quick recap of the season here shows another split last week, and a lucky split it was. The Rams covered late while the Patriots scored more than expected against the Bengals sending the under pick into the loss column. At the quarter pole we stand at 5-3, still on the profit side, but it could get better.
I have had some people ask why I pick totals so often. The reason is that when I look at the lines for the week I do look at everything – from sides to totals to money lines. There will even be something new this week that has never before been attempted here in the Corner. You see, the trick is to try and find an advantage, wherever it may be, and when you find that edge that’s when you walk to the window and make a wager.
OK, I told you we would attempt something new here this week and here it is. The team that I have been most impressed with this season is the New York Jets. They are only 2-2, but with a little luck could have beaten the Colts last week.
The reasons that I am impressed is they lost their starting running back, Curtis Martin, they have a first year head coach, Eric Mangini, and there were huge questions going into the season as to who would be the starting quarterback. Chad Pennington has proven his shoulder is strong and this team has shown a lot of heart so far.
But I do feel bad for them this week. They travel to Jacksonville to face a good Jaguars team who arguably had the toughest opening schedule of any team in the league. After starting with two home wins against Dallas and Pittsburgh, the Jaguars lost two road games against the Colts and the Redskins. Returning home is going to be great medicine for this team. The opening line favors the Jaguars by 7 with a total of 38.
The line that I believe will give us an advantage will be the first half line. The Jaguars were able to shut out the Steelers at home on the second Monday night game of the year. Now on a two game losing streak, and heading home, they will come out motivated to get an early lead. The first half line will probably be Jaguars -4 and if I see a number lower than that I will run to the window.
The big hype game of the week will feature Terrell Owens returning to Philadelphia to take on his former team. The opening line on this game is Eagles -2 1/2 with a total of 43. I like the Cowboys in this game and will take the points, but also look to find some value in a money line bet. The Cowboys are 3-0 against the spread the last three games at Philadelphia and I believe they are the better team.
Jason Kolenut is theCasino Fandango Race andSports Book supervisor.