Line makers seem to know public’s habits
An odd thing happened after last weekend’s games. A customer walked in to check if he had won his wager.
The wager was over 37 1/2 on the Sunday night game, the final score was 23-13. When he found out the score he sort of laughed and made the comment “The lines makers sure are good with those overs.” It got me to thinking about the general betting public and its habits.
It did not surprise me that most of the wagers that are made are parlays and are overwhelmingly on favorites and over the total. So here is a quick breakdown of the first five weeks of the season. Favorites are 51-23 straight up, and 36-35 against the spread with 3 games pushing. The totals have seen 32 games go over (45 percent) with 40 unders and 2 pushes.
Week 5 typifies how line makers can send a bettor home scratching their head and talking to themselves. All 14 favorites won their games straight up but only 9 covered, there was one push and there were also 7 unders. Another interesting statistic is that through 6 Monday night games this year (there were 2 games the first week) the under was 5-0-1. Do not be afraid to take an underdog or an under.
Recapping the picks last week, we split again. The Cowboys had a chance in Philly but quarterback Drew Bledsoe threw almost as may passes to the opposition as he did to his teammates, including an unexplainable interception with less than a minute left when they were knocking on the door. Also, the Jaguars completely demolished the Jets last week and the recommended pick was on the first half. So we plug along at 60 percent for the season, 6-4.
Although the Jets were thoroughly beaten last week, they face the Dolphins this week at home. The Dolphins were quite possibly the most overrated team heading into the season and now they are having clubhouse problems with the benching of quarterback Daunte Culpepper.
The line on the game opened favoring the Jets by 2 1/2, but it should move to 3 with a total of 36. I will take the Jets and lay the points (after such an embarrassing loss a little home cooking should be good medicine) and it doesn’t hurt that the Jets have covered the last five against the Dolphins.
The next game is the Giants visiting the Falcons. The Falcons are favored by 3 with a total of 42 1/2. The Giants are coming off a good home win while the Falcons are rested coming off a bye. These teams have gone under the total 6 times out of the last 7 games they have played. Atlanta has allowed 13 points in two home games this year. Lets take the under in this game.
(Jason Kolenut is the Casino Fandango Race and Sports Book supervisor).