The Corner will try to rebound from bad week
September 22, 2007
I spent some time thinking about last week, and wondering if it is better to get a bad week out of the way early or would it be easier if it happened later in the year.
Actually, I don’t have a choice because it happened last week. No wins, two losses and one push, and we will have to start over with the roll-over pick.
We hit the ground with a big thud and we will be looking to rebound quickly in order not to fall into a big hole.
So let’s dive right into week three of the NFL season and start with the roll-over pick. Because we did not win last week we will start anew with another straight bet of $22.
The game is the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. The line on this game favors the home team Steelers by 9 1/2 and the total is hovering around 37.5. I like the Steelers in this game for a few reasons, the first being the impressive start by the entire team. The Steelers have always been regarded as a defensive football team, and while that still may be true, their offense is making people wake up.
While the 49ers have won their first couple of games, the total margin of victory has been 4 points. I believe the Steelers will out-gain this team by 200 yards, and if that is the case, laying the big spread will not be a problem.
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The second game this week features the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to Bronco country. These teams are similar in that they have young quarterbacks and good defenses. The line favors the Broncos by 3 and the total is 36.
The pick here is to take the home team and lay the points. Again, I believe the Broncos will muster at least 100 more yards total offense than the Jags.
One big stat that jumps out is the Jags third down conversion rate on defense. They have allowed their opponents to convert 50 percent of the time. Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan will exploit this weakness, which will allow the Broncos offense to sustain some drives, hopefully turning them into points.
I am sure you loyal readers are expecting me to pick a total next. Well not this week. That’s right I am going to pick another side. The game is the Arizona Cardinals at the Baltimore Ravens. The line is Baltimore minus 9 and the total is 35.5.
The pick here is the Cardinals plus the points. Both teams have identical points for – 40 and points against Ð 40, and you probably won’t see that happen again this year. Nine points in this game should be too many for a young and hungry team like the Cardinals.
Jason Kolenut’s column appears every Sunday in the Appeal.
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