We had a couple of close wins
If they were all easy it wouldn’t be any fun. A little sweat and nail biting is good, it gets the heart pumping and the adrenaline flowing.
As you all know both of the selections last week were just that, tight games that looked like they would both be easy wins.
At halftime in the Giants-Falcons game you could look at the score, 7-3, and think there is no way they will reach 42 points, not with the way these defenses were playing. But with 31 points in the second half it came close to going over the total but stayed under, securing the first win of the weekend.
The other pick, the Jets worked their way to a 20-3 second half lead only to give up the last 14 points and allow the Dolphins to attempt a long game-tying field goal. Luckily, for our sake, the attempt was missed and the Jets held to win and cover.
So with two wins we move to a record of 8-4, a healthy 67 percent.
As the season progresses it is important to pay attention to all of the lines from the time they open right up to kickoff. A couple of suggestions on line moves, if you watch a total drop by at least a point do not take the over in that game. Conversely if a total rises, especially late in the week, you should think about taking the under in that game.
As we approach the midway point of the season the games that are the bargains get tougher to find. One game that I like this week is Pittsburgh at Atlanta. The opening line on the game favored the Steelers by 1 1/2 with a total of 37 1/2. The line has moved to as high as 2 1/2. The Steelers haven’t looked good this season but are coming off their best game of the season while the Falcons lost to the Giants.
Anytime I see a non-conference game and the road team is favored, I like to lean toward the home team. I am going to take the Falcons in this game with the points, but if I find a money line that is a good value (at least +1.40 in this case) I will also consider it.
The second pick is again a total. The Panthers, coming off a good road win in Baltimore, travel to Cincinnati who lost last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The line opened favoring the Bengals by 3 with a total of 44 1/2. I would expect the total will drop so don’t wait, get out early and take this game under.
I also will look at taking the Panthers in this game but it will depend on the line move. As we get further into the season tracking the line moves could be beneficial.