Old rules don't always apply in presidential race

  • Discuss Comment, Blog about
  • Print Friendly and PDF

WASHINGTON - Al Gore and George W. Bush are carving up the political map and framing issues in ways unseen before this presidential campaign.

Seventeen days before Election Day, polls show the Texas governor opening a lead over the vice president with a large bloc of voters undecided about a race that has defied conventional wisdom on a number of fronts.

''There are new rules for a moment of tranquility like this,'' said Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institute in Washington. ''They have been making some stuff up as they go.''

The biggest surprise is the electoral map, which finds the candidates playing in each others' backyards.

For weeks, Bush has forced the vice president to defend traditionally Democratic states such as Iowa, Oregon, Washington state, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

This week, Bush will:

- Increase his modest TV ad campaign in California, where Gore is clinging to a high single-digit lead in a state Democrats say the vice president must win.

-Saturate the Minneapolis media market with TV ads, opening a new front in a Democratic bastion where polls show the race surprisingly tight. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, who had support of 8 percent of the voters in a Minnesota poll last week, is cutting into Gore's base in a few other key states such as Michigan and Oregon.

-Air a heavy dose of TV ads in Gore's home state of Tennessee. The state's 11 electoral votes, critical to Gore's bid for 270 and the presidency, are suddenly up for grabs. The vice president, running mate Joe Lieberman and Bush plan to campaign in the state this week.

Bush appears to have erased Gore's lead in Illinois, a battleground state that Democrats felt they had put away.

Gore has fought Bush to a dead heat in Florida, a linchpin to any successful GOP presidential campaign. The Texas Republican returns this week to the state run by his brother Jeb, hoping to shore it up.

And yet, Florida is the only major state where the vice president is performing better than expected. Democrats say the imbalance doesn't bode well for their nominee.

''There's a whole lot of our territory he's still defending,'' said Ken Brock, a Democratic strategist in Michigan.

State polls and interviews with operatives across the country suggest that the race for state electoral votes is close, with Bush holding a fragile lead. With a small tilt either way in polls, Gore could reclaim his advantage or Bush could draw closer to the 270 he needs to win.

Bruce Oppenheimer, political science professor at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, said neither Bush nor Gore should have assumed the old rules would apply this time. ''There's change over time in these states,'' he said. ''The politics change, people move in and out.''

Changing demographics have made Florida a swing state; Gore's positions on coal and tobacco hurt him in West Virginia; Tennessee would be a GOP-leaning state if not for a favorite son on the ballot; and the Clinton administration's case against Microsoft hasn't helped Gore in Washington state.

Bush and Gore also are trying to break new ground on their messages.

The Texas governor has made education a centerpiece of his campaign, drawing even with Gore in polls on an issue that usually favors Democrats. To a lesser degree, he has blurred the debates over prescription drugs and Social Security.

Bush released a pair of new ads Saturday, including one that says the solution to the tough problems in education is to raise standards, increase accountability and discipline and stop promoting kids to the next grade if they aren't academically ready.

''It's easy to spend more,'' Bush says, in a subtle knock at Gore, who would spend significantly more on education. ''Let's start by expecting more.''

Hess said Bush and his team have run ''an incredible campaign'' on Democratic issues. ''They have come up so close to Gore's positions on major issues that they haven't given him room to breathe,'' he said.

Gore has billed himself as a fiscal conservative, promising smaller government and deficit reduction with a passion once displayed only by Republicans. This week, he and Lieberman are talking about values - an issue that normally favors GOP politicians.

The values message comes as the vice president deals with questions about his integrity and distance himself from Clinton administration controversies, including the 1998 impeachment.

Riding a booming economy, Gore hopes Americans will keep with tradition and vote their pocketbooks. But that rule may no longer apply, either.

''Maybe the economy has reached a point where it is so healthy that it ceases to be a concern to people,'' said Oppenheimer, who believes Gore will squeak by in their home state, Tennessee ''They might feel at ease enough to worry about other issues, such as character, that cut against Gore.''

Comments

Use the comment form below to begin a discussion about this content.

Sign in to comment