I'm sticking with Patriots for Super

  • Discuss Comment, Blog about
  • Print Friendly and PDF

It doesn't feel like the regular season has already finished, but the National Football League playoffs have quickly come upon us. This year the league again achieved its goal of parity, as eight of the 12 postseason teams are different from last season. Moreover, Super Bowl representatives Tampa Bay and Oakland didn't come close to making the playoffs.

Personally, it was a good year prediction-wise when it came to my preseason choices. In the NFC I had Green Bay, Philadelphia and St. Louis all winning their divisions, and Dallas, yes Dallas, getting a wild card. My sleeper picks, Carolina and Seattle, filled out the NFC playoffs.

I found the AFC to be tougher with New England my only division winner.

Tennessee ended up with a wild card, while one of my wild card picks, Baltimore, won the AFC North. One of my two sleepers was Kansas City.

For this week's predictions, it could be important to note that three of the contests are rematches of games from earlier in the season. Almost 60 percent of playoff rematches have gone to the previous game's winner.

Also, all four teams with playoff bye weeks last season went on to the conference championship games, so outright upsets are more likely to occur this weekend.

Tennessee at Baltimore - With Baltimore 7-1 at home and having won five straight meetings with Tennessee, the Ravens would appear to be the choice here. But Baltimore's Jamal Lewis could be offset by the Titans' No. 1 rush defense, which would force the Ravens' league-worst passing offense to try to do some damage. Tennessee owns the better record and rested MVP candidate quarterback Steve McNair. Prediction: Tennessee +1 and Over 40 1/2 points.

Dallas at Carolina - In the teams' previous meeting Nov. 23, Dallas held Stephen Davis to 59 yards rushing in a 24-20 home victory. Cowboys' coach Bill Parcells is the best in the business, and his defense statistically is No. 1 in the NFL. The Panthers won six of eight at home, but they often fail to cover the point spread. Carolina is 6-10 against the spread, 1-6 in its last seven, 2-6 at home and 1-6 as a home favorite. Prediction: Dallas +3.

Seattle at Green Bay - Seattle coach Mike Holmgren returns again to Green Bay where he won and lost a Super Bowl, and on Oct. 5 his Seahawks gave up 180 yards rushing to Ahman Green in a 35-13 defeat. Green Bay has lost only one game at home in its playoff history, but that was a 27-7 beating from Atlanta last year. Despite suffering a cracked thumb, Packer quarterback Brett Favre led the league in touchdown passes and completed the highest percentage of throws in a season in his career, and his father's recent death has inspired him. Even though Seattle lost by more than seven points only twice all year, I'm taking Green Bay -7.

Denver at Indianapolis - This is a rematch from two Sundays ago when Denver without star Clinton Portis ran circles around the Colts for 227 yards rushing and a 45 minute to 15 advantage in time of possession. That wasn't the first time Indy has struggled versus the run this year, and Portis should be ready Sunday. Colt quarterback Peyton Manning is 0-3 in the playoffs, including a 41-0 drubbing at the hands of the New York Jets last season. Prediction: Denver +3.

Super Bowl - My preseason prediction of New England to win it all looks strong so far. The Patriots have won 12 consecutive games, and the other three teams who accomplished that feat in one season during the Super Bowl era went on to win the championship. History says though, that at least one No. 1 seed will fail to reach the final game. Prediction: New England defeats St. Louis.

Here are predictions for the five remaining college football bowl games:

Cotton - Oklahoma State ended up 5-3 in the Big 12, while Mississippi went 7-1 in the SEC with Heisman Trophy second runner-up Eli Manning. Prediction: Mississippi -2 1/2.

Peach - Tennessee finished with a better record from the stronger SEC, and Clemson is 1-6 in its last seven bowl games. Prediction: Tennessee -6.

Fiesta - Ohio State's defensive coordinator has bolted to Cincinnati, and Kansas State could very well be the best team in the country right now. Prediction:: Kansas State -7.

Humanitarian - WAC teams are 3-0 in bowl games thus far. Prediction: Tulsa +8 versus Georgia Tech and Over 49.

Sugar - The BCS championship game pits the top two defenses and coaches in the country with Oklahoma and Louisiana State. LSU owns what amounts to a home-field advantage in New Orleans, and Oklahoma has a decided edge on special teams. I expect Oklahoma's Heisman Trophy winner Jason White to surprise LSU by running more option plays in this final game of the season. Prediction: Oklahoma -6.

Joe Ellison is the Nevada Appeal Betting Columnist. Contact him at editor@nevadaappeal.com.


Comments

Use the comment form below to begin a discussion about this content.

Sign in to comment