Polls, for what they're worth, show horse race ain't over

Polls, for what they're worth, show this horse race ain't over yet No one ever accused me of having sophisticated taste in entertainment, and maybe that's why I enjoy political polls.

Polls are like watching snapshots from a horse race. Whether it's a major stakes event or a $1,000 claimer, each race generates endless chatter, limitless pontification and pointless prognostication. The ultimate experts and certified geniuses tout their selections.

The horses are groomed to the best of their abilities. And, some cynics would suggest, the political fixers don flashy silks, tussle for position and go to the whip at just the right moment.

I find horse races exciting, political races not so much. A poll's numbers are rarely entertaining, but the way some candidates react to those numbers is often worth the price of admission.

That's the great thing about polls: In the right hands, those numbers can be made to gallop, trot, canter or walk like a sway-backed gelding.

With that said, I'm beginning to wonder whether Dina Titus is slipping in her race against Jim Gibson for the Democratic nod for governor.

For months the conventional handicapping has had the more liberal Titus defeating the more conservative Gibson because of everything from superior name recognition to her greater appeal with traditional Democratic constituencies.

Women and ethnic and sexual minorities were bound to side with Titus. She would split the rest of the Democratic spectrum with Gibson and move on to the general election.

It makes perfect sense.

So why does the second Magellan Research poll in recent weeks show Titus trailing Gibson, this time 39.5 percent to 30.7 percent with 29.8 percent undecided?

Granted, it's a poll commissioned by the Gibson camp. Conspiracy theorists might see shadows in its methodology. It's also true that the Gibson camp switched pollsters earlier this year.

But Magellan pollster Marvin Longabaugh has spent years turning out credible surveys that accurately reflect the reality of the moment.

His most recent tracking poll has a 3.2-point margin of error with 1,100 statewide samples.

In short, if the numbers hold true, it means Titus will have to win two of every three undecided voters to defeat Gibson. That will be almost impossible to do without Gibson taking a Barbaro-like tumble.

Last month, a Magellan poll after a Gibson TV blitz showed the Henderson mayor bounding ahead of Titus, 38.1 percent to 28 percent with 33.9 percent undecided, and leading across the board in the gender, age and regional demographics.

Is that a trend or merely a turn in the race toward the Aug. 15 finish line?

"She's either got to catch a real wave or have the voter turnout of all time, and Jim Gibson's turnout will have to fail," Longabaugh says.

The Titus camp, of course, rejects that theory.

"I do believe that the voters who come to the polls on August 15 will be the core Democrats who identify with all the things that Senator Titus stands for," Titus spokeswoman Jennifer Knight says. "And that's her pro-choice stance, her record on education, her advocacy for the environment and her long record of working for working families."

Knight chides that Gibson has "an identity crisis," and has had trouble deciding whether he's a Republican, independent or Democrat. And he has made big money with politically powerful entities such as Nevada Power, the Las Vegas Monorail and developer Tony Marnell.

Titus' television spots have made no secret of that, and Knight says her candidate will spend more money in better time slots than her opponent.

But is Titus playing well in the rurals?

Do blue-collar crowds appreciate her politics, legislative experience and sense of humor?

Are Democrats focused on suspicions being raised about Gibson, or has Titus gone over-the-top in her criticism?

This poll provides no answers to those questions.

All it says is that, whatever Dina Titus is doing, she would come in second to Jim Gibson if the primary election were today.

"Elections are about rhythm and about making sure you capture momentum and hang onto it, and I think we've done that, and you see that in the polls," Gibson campaign manager Dan Hart says.

Is Titus in trouble?

As if to prove that polls have many meanings - and no meaning at all - on Monday a KVBC-TV, Channel 3 poll showed Titus leading Gibson 42 percent to 39 percent.

Hold onto your tickets. The race ain't over yet.

• John L. Smith's column, reprinted from the Las Vegas Review-Journal, appears on Thursdays on the Appeal's Opinion page. E-mail him at smith@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0295.