Jim Hartman: Musk: ‘An electric power shortage is coming’

Elon Musk is predicting the U.S. consumption of electricity, driven in part by battery-powered vehicles, will triple by 2045.

The man behind the move to replace gasoline-fueled cars with electric ones worries about having enough electricity. He anticipates an electricity shortage in just two years.

“I can’t emphasize enough: we need more electricity,” Musk told an energy conference in June. “However much electricity you think you need, more than that is needed.”

The U.S. energy industry in recent years is already struggling to keep up with demand amid heat waves and other demand spikes.

This also comes at a time when older fossil fuel plants are being replaced by renewable energy.

Utilities are making huge expenditures to retool their systems to be “greener.” It’s estimated the largest U.S. electric companies will spend $1.8 trillion by 2030 on these efforts.

Musk’s push for tripling electricity output comes for an industry that has only grown at an annual rate of 1% over the past 20 years.

This urgent need for electricity gives nuclear power a second chance. Governments everywhere are reconsidering nuclear power, given it provides carbon-free energy.

Nuclear has long been promoted as a green energy source, but the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan reignited fears of meltdowns and environmental contamination.

In the U.S., 12 reactors have been closed since 2012. The current 18.2% nuclear share of American power generation was scheduled to decline.

But countries are now reexamining nuclear power with France and Japan turning back to nuclear following supply shortages brought about by the war in Ukraine. France generates 75% of its electricity from nuclear with announced plans for more.

Most notably China is accelerating a transition to nuclear power. It’s currently the third-largest nuclear producer in the world.

The Democratic Party platform in 2020 endorsed nuclear power for the first time in 50 years. President Biden’s infrastructure bill includes billions to keep aging U.S. nuclear plants from going offline.

On Aug. 1, a new nuclear reactor providing energy to 500,000 homes in the southern U.S. came online. The Plant Vogtle reactor in Georgia is the first new nuclear project to be built from scratch in three decades.

In California , both Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Gov. Gavin Newsom reversed their positions on the 2025 scheduled closing of the state’s last nuclear power plant, PG&E’s Diablo Canyon.

Newsom said the plant, which provides 10% of the state’s electricity, should stay open until 2030 to help California meet it clean energy targets and avoid power outages.

During an intense heat wave prompting a state of emergency in 2022, state legislators and Newsom approved a $1.4 billion loan for PG&E to maintain plant operations until 2030 – and potentially much longer.

Nevada has no electricity generated by nuclear power.

In 2019, the Nevada Legislature passed legislation requiring 50% of Nevada’s electricity be generated by renewable sources by 2030.

Currently, two-thirds of the state’s electricity is produced by natural gas fired power plants with Nevada phasing out coal power plants. Renewable sources are 27% of electricity production.

Opponents lambast nuclear power citing concerns over disposal of radioactive nuclear waste; the risk of accidents and environmental damage; and, their expense to build.

In a Gallup survey, almost half of voters say they oppose nuclear power. A decisive majority of Democrats, environmentalists and young people oppose it.

Ironically, these are the very people who profess to be worried about climate change and are the most opposed to the one technology that can plausibly do something about climate change.

Nuclear is the carbon-free energy source that’s ready to go.

Musk’s push for tripling of electricity output is part of his vision for a transition to a fully electric economy. The world can’t get there with renewables alone. If even achievable , it will require safe, advanced technology nuclear power.

E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman.com.