Wildfire Outlook for 2004

What can residents, property owners, business owners and vacationers expect for the coming 2004 Tahoe Basin fire season?

Early warm to hot weather, low humidity and another moderate drought add up to increased chances of wildfire. The public is urged to use great caution with fire and ignition sources, and to comply with fire-use regulations or prohibitions where they apply.

The Lake Tahoe Basin and much of the Sierra Nevada have just ended another below-average year for winter snow pack. With dry warm weather rapidly diminishing the stored winter snows, the forested lands of the basin will become highly sensitive to fire earlier than average. Last year, fire restrictions were not imposed. This year, conditions make restrictions by summer more likely.

Over the last 30 years, an average of 74 wildfires occurred in the basin each year. In 1978 alone, there were more than 160. This totals 2,220 wildfires. More than 90 percent of these fires are stopped while small and manageable.

Today, humans cause most fires, (495 over 30 years) but even if we could somehow guarantee the elimination of all human-caused sources of wildfire in the Tahoe Basin, fire threats to communities would remain. Lightning from passing summer thunderstorms on average sparks more than 15 fires each season, and is the second most common source of wildfire ignition, with 456 wildfires over 30 years.

A serious wildfire is an eventuality in the Tahoe Basin. It may happen this year - or it may not - but it will happen. On the scale of recent western wildfires of tens of thousands, even millions of acres, Tahoe's Gondola Fire of 2002 was tiny - less than 700 acres. Yet, it greatly increased community awareness of the vulnerabilities we face.

We cannot stop droughts, or low humidity. We cannot prevent all careless acts of people, and we have no power to stop the lightning. We can, however, do something about the fuels that feed wildfires. Since 1987, the Forest Service has treated more than 32,000 acres of Tahoe Basin lands for hazardous fuels reduction.

Communities are getting involved. We can provide our homes with defensible space. We can participate in community fire planning efforts to enhance fire protection for whole neighborhoods. These efforts are being linked to Community Defense Zone treatments around communities.

By managing the factors that are within our control, we increase our ability to protect homes, property and lives when the day comes that a significant wildfire returns.

- Rex Norman is public information officer for the Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit of the U.S. Forest Service